"The Chinese economy has achieved a good start this year." The unanimous judgement of Reuters and the United States's Bloomberg reflected the voice of overseas media. The report quoted data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China: In the first quarter of this year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4% from the previous period. The British BBC praised China's economic growth, saying that it was "better than expected" and demonstrated the resilience of the world's second-largest economy. Under the "big stick" trade war that the United States has held up high, China's economic data in the first quarter has reassured the restless world. Foreign media are calling out, and trade wars will not be difficult for China. The specific analysis of China's filament yarn weaving industry in the first quarter of 2018 is as follows:

I. Steady growth in production

According to statistics from various clusters, from January to March 2018, the total output of chemical fiber filament yarns in Shengze, Longhu, Fuyang, Pingwang and Keqiao counted at 4.799 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.97%. In the same period of last year, the output of chemical fiber filament yarn in the above five clusters was 4.698 billion meters. In the first quarter of 2018, the output increased by 101 million meters compared with the same period of last year. At present, since the second half of 2017, the rectification of small and medium-sized enterprises and non-standard enterprises by clusters has not affected the overall scale of production. As the entire industry is facing a large-scale industrial transfer, some new clusters are under construction and it is expected that the whole industry will see steady growth in output throughout the year.

Second, export competition is still fierce

Due to the weak global economy, insufficient international market demand, further weakening of China’s traditional competitive advantages, and aggravation of trade frictions, the international trade situation is not good, but the textile market performed well. From January to March, China's textile export trade amounted to 27.206 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 11.03% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative export value of textile fabrics was US$8.147 billion, an increase of 7.18% year-on-year; the actual export volume was 6.587 billion meters, an increase of 2.67% year-on-year; the average export price was US$1.24 per meter, an increase of 5.08% over the same period of last year, showing a state of increasing volume and price. The industry economy has shown great vitality.

  (I) Increase in the export volume of filament fabrics

According to statistics from China Customs, the cumulative exports of China's chemical filament fabric from January to March in 2018 were 3.112 billion meters, an increase of 7.82% year-on-year, an increase of 13.08 percentage points from the same period of last year. However, due to the trade situation, exports were exported in March. The volume was 596 million meters, which was significantly lower than that in February.

Regarding the export category of the filament yarn weaving industry, from January to March 2018, the total number of nylon filament fabrics exported was 113 million meters, an increase of 13.32% year-on-year; the total number of polyester filament fabrics was 2.657 billion meters, an increase of 8.38% year-on-year.

(ii) Decline in the export price of nylon fabrics

According to customs statistics, from January to March in 2018, the average export price of China's chemical filament fabrics was US$0.92 per meter, an increase of 2.22% year-on-year. The export price of polyester filament fabrics was US$0.92 per meter, a year-on-year increase of 6.98%. The export price of nylon filament fabrics has fallen by a large margin, down 12.78% year-on-year.

During the period, the export price of nylon filament fabrics fluctuated widely and slowly and showed a downward trend. In particular, the export unit price fell in March 2018. The export price of polyester filament fabrics decreased after a slow but moderate decline in 2018. In February, it reverted to the high unit price of exports close to the beginning of 2016, and began to rebound significantly from August 2017. In March of 2018, the export price of single month again fell slightly.

(III) Increase in import prices

According to customs statistics, from January to March in 2018, China's textile fabrics imported a total of 696 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 4.74% year-on-year, of which cumulative imports of long-filament fabrics were 319 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.98% year-on-year. The total number of nylon filament fabrics imported was 102 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.43% year-on-year; the total number of imported polyester filament fabrics was 145 million U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.75%. From Table 3, it can be clearly seen that from January to March 2018, the cumulative import value of China's filament fabrics maintained a positive growth. The import volume changed from positive growth last year to negative growth, and the average import price changed from negative growth last year to positive growth. . China's existing conventional product production capacity has met the domestic market demand, but a small amount of high value-added products still need to rely on imports.

The average import price of filament fabrics was 1.77 US$/meter, a year-on-year increase of 12.03%, and an increase of US$0.19/m from the average price of imports in March 2017.

Third, the domestic market is picking up

Judging from the performance of the Oriental Silk Market, March 2018 has become a clear turning point. It has experienced a downturn in March. The recovery of the prosperity index in April indicated a sharp rise in market sales. After experiencing fluctuations, market confidence rekindled. From January to April of 2018, the price index of China's chemical filament fabrics showed an upward trend, and the market picked up.

According to the survey questionnaire of the filament yarn weaving industry in the spring of 2018, 83.33% and 94.29% of the companies believe that the raw material prices and printing and dyeing costs in 2018 are higher than those in 2017, and the production cost is further increased, which in turn leads to 80% of the companies thinking that the product price will be corresponding rise. This conclusion is consistent with the results shown in Figure 3. As can be seen from Figure 4, the prices of casual wear, women's wear and down wear fabrics are stable throughout the year, and silk fabrics and business wear fabrics have not performed well for a period of time. The rest are at relatively stable high prices. Judging from this year’s data, last year’s “environmental protection storm” brought space to the market, but also provided strong support for the market order, the market became more standardized, and the competition became more fair, prompting a consistent sluggish product price to start rising.

Fourth, raw material prices rose steadily

Brent crude oil prices surged from $50.96/barrel in June 2017 to $74.44/barrel in April 2018. The rise in crude oil prices has provided strong support for the prices of raw materials for chemical fiber filaments in China. The price increase of nylon FDY is more obvious. In addition, the bullishness in the weaving market has also pushed up the price of chemical fiber filaments.

Fifth, the industry economy is good

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March 2018, China’s owner-operated chemical fiber weaving processing business had a total revenue of 23.985 billion yuan, an increase of 11.82% year-on-year, an increase of 2.81 percentage points from the same period of last year. Total profit was 7.24 billion yuan, an increase of 16.39% year-on-year, an increase of 6.48 percentage points over the same period of last year; the profit margin was 3.02%, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points from the same period of last year.

In 2017, China’s filament yarn weaving industry experienced the “environmental protection storm”. The production companies were able to reshuffle their cards, and low- and small-scale enterprises were shut down. Companies with large scales were also working hard to improve their equipment, upgrade their equipment, and increase their intelligent management systems. While increasing product quality and increasing production efficiency, coupled with the standardization of the market and fair and orderly competition, entrepreneurs have shown higher confidence. The 2018 spring survey questionnaire of the filament weaving industry also confirms this point. The questionnaire results show that 52.94% of the companies believe that the international market in 2018 is the same as 2017, and 26.47% of companies believe that it is better than 2017. 58.33% of companies believe that China's domestic market will be better than 2017 in 2018, and business confidence is higher. It is expected that the Chinese filament weaving industry will have a better development in 2018.